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Manzini Wanderers vs Tinyosi — Premier League 2020

Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
FT
0 – 1
Tinyosi
Tinyosi
7/31/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Manzini Wanderers34%
×Draw27%
Tinyosi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manzini Wanderers
1.21
Tinyosi
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 30 away

creates per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.01
Tinyosi
0.90

allows per match

Manzini Wanderers
1.71
Tinyosi
1.40

finishing

Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par
Tinyosi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manzini Wanderers ↓

Tinyosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Manzini Wanderers or draw
61%
Manzini Wanderers or Tinyosi
73%
Draw or Tinyosi
66%

Winning margin

Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
15%
Tinyosi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
70%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
34%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
12%
Tinyosi 1+ goals
73%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
37%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
47%
Tinyosi (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manzini Wanderers at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

Tinyosi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manzini Wanderers attack 1.01 + Tinyosi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tinyosi attack 0.90 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Manzini Wanderers scores more
34%
level
27%
Tinyosi scores more
39%

Tinyosi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tinyosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Manzini Wanderers 0–1 Tinyosi

Tinyosi beat Manzini Wanderers 1-0 in Premier League on July 31, 2021.