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Tinyosi vs Black Swallows — Premier League 2020

Tinyosi
Tinyosi
FT
2 – 0
Black Swallows
Black Swallows
4/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Prince of Wales Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tinyosi44%
×Draw27%
Black Swallows30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tinyosi
1.40
Black Swallows
1.10

Tinyosi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tinyosi
0.79
Black Swallows
0.73

allows per match

Tinyosi
1.48
Black Swallows
2.00

finishing

Tinyosi+0.00on par
Black Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tinyosi ↓

Black Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tinyosi or draw
70%
Tinyosi or Black Swallows
73%
Draw or Black Swallows
56%

Winning margin

Tinyosi wins by 2+
21%
Black Swallows wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tinyosi 1+ goals
75%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
41%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
17%
Black Swallows 1+ goals
67%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
30%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tinyosi (draw refunded)
60%
Black Swallows (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tinyosi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

Black Swallows away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tinyosi attack 0.79 + Black Swallows defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Black Swallows attack 0.73 + Tinyosi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tinyosi scores more
44%
level
27%
Black Swallows scores more
30%

Tinyosi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tinyosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tinyosi 2–0 Black Swallows

Tinyosi beat Black Swallows 2-0 in Premier League on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Prince of Wales Stadium in Mbabane.