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Black Swallows vs Tinyosi — Premier League 2020

Black Swallows
Black Swallows
FT
1 – 1
Tinyosi
Tinyosi
5/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Killarney Sports Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Black Swallows36%
×Draw25%
Tinyosi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Swallows
1.36
Tinyosi
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Black Swallows
1.33
Tinyosi
0.90

allows per match

Black Swallows
1.93
Tinyosi
1.40

finishing

Black Swallows+0.00on par
Tinyosi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Swallows ↓

Tinyosi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Black Swallows or draw
61%
Black Swallows or Tinyosi
75%
Draw or Tinyosi
64%

Winning margin

Black Swallows wins by 2+
16%
Tinyosi wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Black Swallows 1+ goals
74%
Black Swallows 2+ goals
39%
Black Swallows 3+ goals
16%
Tinyosi 1+ goals
76%
Tinyosi 2+ goals
41%
Tinyosi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Black Swallows (draw refunded)
48%
Tinyosi (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Swallows at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Tinyosi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Swallows attack 1.33 + Tinyosi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tinyosi attack 0.90 + Black Swallows defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Black Swallows scores more
36%
level
25%
Tinyosi scores more
39%

Tinyosi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tinyosi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Black Swallows 1–1 Tinyosi

Black Swallows and Tinyosi drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Killarney Sports Field in Piggs Peak.