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Timor-Leste vs Philippines — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Philippines
Philippines
10/9/2025Asian Cup - QualificationAsian Cup - Qualification · 3rd Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Timor-Leste22%
×Draw21%
Philippines57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timor-Leste
1.21
Philippines
2.06

Philippines creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Timor-Leste
1.17
Philippines
1.63

allows per match

Timor-Leste
2.50
Philippines
1.25

finishing

Timor-Leste+0.00on par
Philippines+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timor-Leste ↓

Philippines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Timor-Leste or draw
43%
Timor-Leste or Philippines
79%
Draw or Philippines
78%

Winning margin

Timor-Leste wins by 2+
9%
Philippines wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Timor-Leste 1+ goals
70%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
34%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
12%
Philippines 1+ goals
87%
Philippines 2+ goals
61%
Philippines 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
28%
Philippines (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timor-Leste at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Philippines away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timor-Leste attack 1.17 + Philippines defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Philippines attack 1.63 + Timor-Leste defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Timor-Leste scores more
22%
level
21%
Philippines scores more
57%

Philippines at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Philippines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timor-Leste vs Philippines

Philippines beat Timor-Leste 4-1 in Asian Cup - Qualification on October 9, 2025.