Timor-Leste 2–3 Philippines: Result & Stats

Timor-Leste

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Philippines

11/17/2018

AFF Championship · Group Stage - 3KLFA Stadium (Kuala Lumpur)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Timor-Leste15%

×Draw17%

Philippines68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timor-LesteExpected goals in this matchPhilippines

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.70

Timor-Leste

1.23

Philippines

2.70

Philippines creates 120% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

0.90

creates per match

2.00

3.40

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Timor-Leste

0.90

Philippines

2.00

allows per match

Timor-Leste

3.40

Philippines

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Philippines+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timor-Leste ↓

Philippines →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Timor-Leste or draw

32%

Timor-Leste or Philippines

83%

Draw or Philippines

85%

Winning margin

Timor-Leste wins by 2+

6%

Philippines wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Timor-Leste 1+ goals

71%

Timor-Leste 2+ goals

35%

Timor-Leste 3+ goals

13%

Philippines 1+ goals

93%

Philippines 2+ goals

75%

Philippines 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Timor-Leste (draw refunded)

19%

Philippines (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timor-Leste at home — creates 0.90, concedes 3.40 · 10 matches

Philippines away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timor-Leste attack 0.90 + Philippines defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Philippines attack 2.00 + Timor-Leste defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Timor-Leste scores more

15%

level

17%

Philippines scores more

68%

Philippines at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Philippines will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff