Timor-Leste 3–1 Brunei: Result & Stats

Timor-Leste

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brunei

O. Da Silva 80'

C. Gomes Osorio 62'

Z. Cruz 56'

A. Ali Rahman 43'

6/9/2026

ASEAN Championship · Qualification Round Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Timor-Leste38%

×Draw21%

Brunei41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timor-LesteExpected goals in this matchBrunei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

2.02

Timor-Leste

1.92

Brunei

2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

0.67

3.36

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Timor-Leste

1.00

Brunei

0.67

allows per match

Timor-Leste

3.36

Brunei

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Brunei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timor-Leste ↓

Brunei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Timor-Leste or draw

59%

Timor-Leste or Brunei

79%

Draw or Brunei

62%

Winning margin

Timor-Leste wins by 2+

20%

Brunei wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Timor-Leste 1+ goals

85%

Timor-Leste 2+ goals

57%

Timor-Leste 3+ goals

30%

Brunei 1+ goals

87%

Brunei 2+ goals

60%

Brunei 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Timor-Leste (draw refunded)

48%

Brunei (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timor-Leste at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.36 · 11 matches

Brunei away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timor-Leste attack 1.00 + Brunei defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Brunei attack 0.67 + Timor-Leste defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Timor-Leste scores more

38%

level

21%

Brunei scores more

41%

Brunei at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. A. Aminuddin

43'

A. Ali Rahman↳ M. Norsamri

56'

Z. Cruz↳ L. Farrugia

61'

N. Ismail← A. Rashid

61'

A. Bakhito← Z. Cruz

62'

M. Haddy← M. A. Aminuddin

62'

C. Gomes Osorio

72'

A. Correia← L. Farrugia

73'

J. Rangel← J. Rangel

78'

H. Danial

80'

O. Da Silva↳ Zenivio

85'

M. Norsamri← M. Norsamri

85'

T. Arrarte← C. Gomes Osorio

85'

Kaka← Zenivio

87'

N. Azaman← N. Othman

88'

H. Syamra← A. Ali Rahman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff