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Brunei vs Timor-Leste — Friendlies 2018

Brunei
Brunei
CANC
00:00
Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
9/6/2023FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brunei63%
×Draw22%
Timor-Leste15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunei
1.88
Timor-Leste
0.78

Brunei creates 141% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brunei
0.75
Timor-Leste
0.80

allows per match

Brunei
0.75
Timor-Leste
3.00

finishing

Brunei+0.00on par
Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunei ↓

Timor-Leste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brunei or draw
85%
Brunei or Timor-Leste
78%
Draw or Timor-Leste
37%

Winning margin

Brunei wins by 2+
38%
Timor-Leste wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brunei 1+ goals
85%
Brunei 2+ goals
56%
Brunei 3+ goals
29%
Timor-Leste 1+ goals
54%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
18%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brunei (draw refunded)
81%
Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunei at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Timor-Leste away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunei attack 0.75 + Timor-Leste defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Timor-Leste attack 0.80 + Brunei defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Brunei scores more
63%
level
22%
Timor-Leste scores more
15%

Brunei at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brunei vs Timor-Leste — Match Preview

Brunei face Timor-Leste on September 6, 2023 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.