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Timor-Leste vs Brunei — AFF Championship 2018

Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brunei
Brunei
11/8/2022AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Qualifying RoundStadium Padang dan Balapan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Timor-Leste36%
×Draw21%
Brunei43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timor-Leste
1.86
Brunei
2.04

Brunei creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Timor-Leste
0.90
Brunei
0.67

allows per match

Timor-Leste
3.40
Brunei
2.83

finishing

Timor-Leste+0.00on par
Brunei+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timor-Leste ↓

Brunei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Timor-Leste or draw
57%
Timor-Leste or Brunei
79%
Draw or Brunei
64%

Winning margin

Timor-Leste wins by 2+
19%
Brunei wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Timor-Leste 1+ goals
84%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
55%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
28%
Brunei 1+ goals
87%
Brunei 2+ goals
60%
Brunei 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
46%
Brunei (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timor-Leste at home — creates 0.90, concedes 3.40 · 10 matches

Brunei away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timor-Leste attack 0.90 + Brunei defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.86

Brunei attack 0.67 + Timor-Leste defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Timor-Leste scores more
36%
level
21%
Brunei scores more
43%

Brunei at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brunei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timor-Leste vs Brunei

Timor-Leste beat Brunei 1-0 in AFF Championship on November 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadium Padang dan Balapan in Bandar Seri Begawan.