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Timor-Leste U19 vs Indonesia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Timor-Leste U19
Timor-Leste U19
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Indonesia U19
Indonesia U19
A. Kaka 65'
I. Siregar 61'
R. Salampessy 42'
6/4/2026AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2North Sumatra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Timor-Leste U1910%
×Draw17%
Indonesia U1973%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timor-Leste U19
0.78
Indonesia U19
2.40

Indonesia U19 creates 208% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Timor-Leste U19
1.40
Indonesia U19
2.00

allows per match

Timor-Leste U19
2.80
Indonesia U19
0.17

finishing

Timor-Leste U19+0.00on par
Indonesia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timor-Leste U19 ↓

Indonesia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Timor-Leste U19 or draw
27%
Timor-Leste U19 or Indonesia U19
83%
Draw or Indonesia U19
90%

Winning margin

Timor-Leste U19 wins by 2+
3%
Indonesia U19 wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Timor-Leste U19 1+ goals
54%
Timor-Leste U19 2+ goals
18%
Timor-Leste U19 3+ goals
4%
Indonesia U19 1+ goals
91%
Indonesia U19 2+ goals
69%
Indonesia U19 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Timor-Leste U19 (draw refunded)
12%
Indonesia U19 (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timor-Leste U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Indonesia U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timor-Leste U19 attack 1.40 + Indonesia U19 defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.78

Indonesia U19 attack 2.00 + Timor-Leste U19 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Timor-Leste U19 scores more
10%
level
17%
Indonesia U19 scores more
73%

Indonesia U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Indonesia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
R. Salampessy
61'
I. Siregar
65'
A. Kaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timor-Leste U19 vs Indonesia U19

Indonesia U19 beat Timor-Leste U19 3-0 in AFF U19 Championship on June 4, 2026.

Goals: R. Salampessy (42'), I. Siregar (61'), A. Kaka (65').

The match was played at North Sumatra Stadium in Medan.