Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indonesia U19 vs Timor-Leste U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Indonesia U19
Indonesia U19
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Timor-Leste U19
Timor-Leste U19
K. Rizky 56'
A. Kaka 53'
K. Arel 51'
F. Dennis 45+2'
J. Raven 26', 18'
A. Bakhito 87'
R. Rorinho 24' (pen)
7/23/2024AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Indonesia U1975%
×Draw14%
Timor-Leste U1910%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indonesia U19
2.87
Timor-Leste U19
0.98

Indonesia U19 creates 193% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Indonesia U19
3.33
Timor-Leste U19
1.40

allows per match

Indonesia U19
0.56
Timor-Leste U19
2.40

finishing

Indonesia U19+0.00on par
Timor-Leste U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indonesia U19 ↓

Timor-Leste U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Indonesia U19 or draw
90%
Indonesia U19 or Timor-Leste U19
86%
Draw or Timor-Leste U19
25%

Winning margin

Indonesia U19 wins by 2+
55%
Timor-Leste U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Indonesia U19 1+ goals
94%
Indonesia U19 2+ goals
77%
Indonesia U19 3+ goals
53%
Timor-Leste U19 1+ goals
62%
Timor-Leste U19 2+ goals
26%
Timor-Leste U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Indonesia U19 (draw refunded)
88%
Timor-Leste U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indonesia U19 at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Timor-Leste U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indonesia U19 attack 3.33 + Timor-Leste U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.87

Timor-Leste U19 attack 1.40 + Indonesia U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Indonesia U19 scores more
75%
level
14%
Timor-Leste U19 scores more
10%

Indonesia U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Indonesia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
J. Raven
24'
R. RorinhoPenalty
26'
J. Raven
45+2'
F. Dennis
51'
K. Arel
53'
A. Kaka
56'
K. Rizky
87'
A. Bakhito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Indonesia U19 6–2 Timor-Leste U19

Indonesia U19 beat Timor-Leste U19 6-2 in AFF U19 Championship on July 23, 2024.

Goals: J. Raven (18', 26'), R. Rorinho (24' pen), F. Dennis (45+2'), K. Arel (51'), A. Kaka (53'), K. Rizky (56'), A. Bakhito (87').

The match was played at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo in Surabaya.