Timon MA 1–2 Lago Verde: Result & Stats

Timon MA

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lago Verde

9/28/2025

Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Timon MA22%

×Draw30%

Lago Verde48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timon MAExpected goals in this matchLago Verde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.25

Timon MA

0.75

Lago Verde

1.25

Lago Verde creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

0.50

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Timon MA

1.00

Lago Verde

2.00

allows per match

Timon MA

0.50

Lago Verde

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timon MA+0.00on par

Lago Verde+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timon MA ↓

Lago Verde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–117%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Timon MA or draw

52%

Timon MA or Lago Verde

70%

Draw or Lago Verde

78%

Winning margin

Timon MA wins by 2+

7%

Lago Verde wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Timon MA 1+ goals

53%

Timon MA 2+ goals

17%

Timon MA 3+ goals

4%

Lago Verde 1+ goals

71%

Lago Verde 2+ goals

36%

Lago Verde 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Timon MA (draw refunded)

32%

Lago Verde (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timon MA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Lago Verde away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timon MA attack 1.00 + Lago Verde defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Lago Verde attack 2.00 + Timon MA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Timon MA scores more

22%

level

30%

Lago Verde scores more

48%

Lago Verde at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff