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Lago Verde vs Timon MA — Maranhense - 2 2026

Lago Verde
Lago Verde
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Timon MA
Timon MA
9/13/2025Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Maranhense 2 - 1Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lago Verde54%
×Draw22%
Timon MA24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lago Verde
1.93
Timon MA
1.20

Lago Verde creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lago Verde
2.86
Timon MA
1.11

allows per match

Lago Verde
1.29
Timon MA
1.00

finishing

Lago Verde+0.00on par
Timon MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lago Verde ↓

Timon MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lago Verde or draw
76%
Lago Verde or Timon MA
78%
Draw or Timon MA
46%

Winning margin

Lago Verde wins by 2+
31%
Timon MA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lago Verde 1+ goals
85%
Lago Verde 2+ goals
57%
Lago Verde 3+ goals
30%
Timon MA 1+ goals
70%
Timon MA 2+ goals
34%
Timon MA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lago Verde (draw refunded)
70%
Timon MA (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lago Verde at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Timon MA away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lago Verde attack 2.86 + Timon MA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Timon MA attack 1.11 + Lago Verde defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lago Verde scores more
54%
level
22%
Timon MA scores more
24%

Lago Verde at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lago Verde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lago Verde vs Timon MA

Lago Verde and Timon MA drew 3-3 in Maranhense - 2 on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.