Timon MA 0–0 ITZ Sport: Result & Stats

Timon MA

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ITZ Sport

11/7/2024

Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Nhozinho Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Timon MA40%

×Draw35%

ITZ Sport26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timon MAExpected goals in this matchITZ Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.69

Timon MA

0.94

ITZ Sport

0.69

Timon MA creates 36% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

0.88

0.50

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Timon MA

1.00

ITZ Sport

0.88

allows per match

Timon MA

0.50

ITZ Sport

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timon MA+0.00on par

ITZ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timon MA ↓

ITZ Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Timon MA or draw

74%

Timon MA or ITZ Sport

65%

Draw or ITZ Sport

60%

Winning margin

Timon MA wins by 2+

15%

ITZ Sport wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Timon MA 1+ goals

61%

Timon MA 2+ goals

24%

Timon MA 3+ goals

7%

ITZ Sport 1+ goals

50%

ITZ Sport 2+ goals

15%

ITZ Sport 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Timon MA (draw refunded)

61%

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timon MA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

ITZ Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timon MA attack 1.00 + ITZ Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

ITZ Sport attack 0.88 + Timon MA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Timon MA scores more

40%

level

35%

ITZ Sport scores more

26%

Timon MA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Timon MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff