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ITZ Sport vs Timon MA — Maranhense - 2 2026

ITZ Sport
ITZ Sport
FT
1 – 0
Timon MA
Timon MA
11/11/2024Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Walter Lira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

ITZ Sport35%
×Draw27%
Timon MA38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ITZ Sport
1.25
Timon MA
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Timon MA
1.11

allows per match

ITZ Sport
1.50
Timon MA
1.00

finishing

ITZ Sport+0.00on par
Timon MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ITZ Sport ↓

Timon MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ITZ Sport or draw
62%
ITZ Sport or Timon MA
73%
Draw or Timon MA
65%

Winning margin

ITZ Sport wins by 2+
15%
Timon MA wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ITZ Sport 1+ goals
71%
ITZ Sport 2+ goals
36%
ITZ Sport 3+ goals
13%
Timon MA 1+ goals
73%
Timon MA 2+ goals
38%
Timon MA 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ITZ Sport (draw refunded)
48%
Timon MA (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ITZ Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Timon MA away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ITZ Sport attack 1.50 + Timon MA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Timon MA attack 1.11 + ITZ Sport defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

ITZ Sport scores more
35%
level
27%
Timon MA scores more
38%

Timon MA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Timon MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ITZ Sport vs Timon MA

ITZ Sport beat Timon MA 1-0 in Maranhense - 2 on November 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Walter Lira in Imperatriz, Maranhão.