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Timon MA vs Araioses — Maranhense - 2 2026

Timon MA
Timon MA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Araioses
Araioses
7/22/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Timon MA32%
×Draw39%
Araioses29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timon MA
0.70
Araioses
0.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Timon MA
1.00
Araioses
0.80

allows per match

Timon MA
0.50
Araioses
0.40

finishing

Timon MA+0.00on par
Araioses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 85Over: 1585%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 76Yes: 2476%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timon MA ↓

Araioses →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–117%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Timon MA or draw
71%
Timon MA or Araioses
61%
Draw or Araioses
68%

Winning margin

Timon MA wins by 2+
9%
Araioses wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Timon MA 1+ goals
50%
Timon MA 2+ goals
16%
Timon MA 3+ goals
3%
Araioses 1+ goals
48%
Araioses 2+ goals
14%
Araioses 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Timon MA (draw refunded)
53%
Araioses (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timon MA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Araioses away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timon MA attack 1.00 + Araioses defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.70

Araioses attack 0.80 + Timon MA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Timon MA scores more
32%
level
39%
Araioses scores more
29%

Timon MA at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Timon MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Timon MA 1–1 Araioses

Timon MA and Araioses drew 1-1 in Maranhense - 2 on July 22, 2026.