Araioses 1–0 Timon MA: Result & Stats

Araioses

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Timon MA

7/18/2026

Maranhense - 2 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Araioses57%

×Draw28%

Timon MA15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AraiosesExpected goals in this matchTimon MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.56

Araioses

1.38

Timon MA

0.56

Araioses creates 146% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

1.75

creates per match

1.11

0.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Araioses

1.75

Timon MA

1.11

allows per match

Araioses

0.00

Timon MA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Araioses+0.00on par

Timon MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araioses ↓

Timon MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Araioses or draw

85%

Araioses or Timon MA

72%

Draw or Timon MA

43%

Winning margin

Araioses wins by 2+

29%

Timon MA wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Araioses 1+ goals

75%

Araioses 2+ goals

40%

Araioses 3+ goals

16%

Timon MA 1+ goals

43%

Timon MA 2+ goals

11%

Timon MA 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Araioses (draw refunded)

79%

Timon MA (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araioses at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Timon MA away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araioses attack 1.75 + Timon MA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Timon MA attack 1.11 + Araioses defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Araioses scores more

57%

level

28%

Timon MA scores more

15%

Araioses at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Araioses will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff