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Timok Zaječar vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
1 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
3/31/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 25Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Timok Zaječar57%
×Draw23%
Timočanin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
1.81
Timočanin
0.97

Timok Zaječar creates 87% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 73 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
80%
Timok Zaječar or Timočanin
77%
Draw or Timočanin
43%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
33%
Timočanin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
84%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
54%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
27%
Timočanin 1+ goals
62%
Timočanin 2+ goals
25%
Timočanin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
74%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.81

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
57%
level
23%
Timočanin scores more
20%

Timok Zaječar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timok Zaječar vs Timočanin

Timok Zaječar and Timočanin drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on March 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.