Timočanin 1–2 Timok Zaječar: Result & Stats

Timočanin

FT

1 – 2

Timok Zaječar

9/13/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Timočanin56%

×Draw22%

Timok Zaječar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TimočaninExpected goals in this matchTimok Zaječar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.13

Timočanin

1.96

Timok Zaječar

1.13

Timočanin creates 73% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 64 away

2.37

creates per match

1.06

1.20

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Timočanin

2.37

Timok Zaječar

1.06

allows per match

Timočanin

1.20

Timok Zaječar

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Timok Zaječar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw

78%

Timočanin or Timok Zaječar

78%

Draw or Timok Zaječar

44%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+

33%

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals

86%

Timočanin 2+ goals

58%

Timočanin 3+ goals

31%

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

68%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

31%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)

72%

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Timočanin scores more

56%

level

22%

Timok Zaječar scores more

22%

Timočanin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff