Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Timok Zaječar vs Radnički Svilajnac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
0 – 0
Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 35Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Timok Zaječar52%
×Draw24%
Radnički Svilajnac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
1.75
Radnički Svilajnac
1.13

Timok Zaječar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 78 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Radnički Svilajnac
1.37

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Radnički Svilajnac
1.54

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Radnički Svilajnac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
75%
Timok Zaječar or Radnički Svilajnac
76%
Draw or Radnički Svilajnac
48%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
28%
Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
83%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
52%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
25%
Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
68%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
31%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
68%
Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Radnički Svilajnac away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Radnički Svilajnac attack 1.37 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
52%
level
24%
Radnički Svilajnac scores more
25%

Timok Zaječar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timok Zaječar vs Radnički Svilajnac

Timok Zaječar and Radnički Svilajnac drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.