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Radnički Svilajnac vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radnički Svilajnac
Radnički Svilajnac
FT
5 – 1
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
11/12/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 14Stadion Bojača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Radnički Svilajnac56%
×Draw22%
Timok Zaječar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Svilajnac
1.89
Timok Zaječar
1.08

Radnički Svilajnac creates 75% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

creates per match

Radnički Svilajnac
2.23
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Radnički Svilajnac
1.10
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Radnički Svilajnac+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Svilajnac ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radnički Svilajnac or draw
79%
Radnički Svilajnac or Timok Zaječar
78%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
44%

Winning margin

Radnički Svilajnac wins by 2+
32%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnički Svilajnac 1+ goals
85%
Radnički Svilajnac 2+ goals
56%
Radnički Svilajnac 3+ goals
29%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
66%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
29%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Radnički Svilajnac (draw refunded)
72%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Svilajnac at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.10 · 79 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Svilajnac attack 2.23 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.89

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Radnički Svilajnac defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Radnički Svilajnac scores more
56%
level
22%
Timok Zaječar scores more
21%

Radnički Svilajnac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Radnički Svilajnac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radnički Svilajnac 5–1 Timok Zaječar

Radnički Svilajnac beat Timok Zaječar 5-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bojača in Svilajnac.