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Timok Zaječar vs Radan — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
1 – 0
Radan
Radan
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Timok Zaječar49%
×Draw24%
Radan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
1.71
Radan
1.23

Timok Zaječar creates 39% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 27 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Radan
1.56

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Radan
1.48

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Radan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
72%
Timok Zaječar or Radan
76%
Draw or Radan
51%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
26%
Radan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
82%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
51%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
24%
Radan 1+ goals
71%
Radan 2+ goals
35%
Radan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
64%
Radan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.71

Radan attack 1.56 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
49%
level
24%
Radan scores more
28%

Timok Zaječar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timok Zaječar vs Radan

Timok Zaječar beat Radan 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.