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Radan vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
1 – 4
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
4/4/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radan57%
×Draw24%
Timok Zaječar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
1.75
Timok Zaječar
0.93

Radan creates 88% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 64 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radan or draw
80%
Radan or Timok Zaječar
76%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
43%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
32%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
83%
Radan 2+ goals
52%
Radan 3+ goals
25%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
61%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
24%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
74%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Radan scores more
57%
level
24%
Timok Zaječar scores more
20%

Radan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Radan 1–4 Timok Zaječar

Timok Zaječar beat Radan 4-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.