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Timok Zaječar vs RAD — Prva Liga 2018

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RAD
RAD
9/26/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 9Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Timok Zaječar53%
×Draw27%
RAD20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
1.41
RAD
0.74

Timok Zaječar creates 91% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 37 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.22
RAD
0.76

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.72
RAD
1.59

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
80%
Timok Zaječar or RAD
73%
Draw or RAD
47%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
26%
RAD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
76%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
41%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
17%
RAD 1+ goals
52%
RAD 2+ goals
17%
RAD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
73%
RAD (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

RAD away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.22 + RAD defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

RAD attack 0.76 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
53%
level
27%
RAD scores more
20%

Timok Zaječar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Timok Zaječar 1–1 RAD

Timok Zaječar and RAD drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.