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RAD vs Timok Zaječar — Prva Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
3/6/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 24Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

RAD48%
×Draw26%
Timok Zaječar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.48
Timok Zaječar
1.03

RAD creates 44% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

creates per match

RAD
1.32
Timok Zaječar
0.84

allows per match

RAD
1.22
Timok Zaječar
1.63

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RAD or draw
74%
RAD or Timok Zaječar
74%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
52%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
24%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
77%
RAD 2+ goals
43%
RAD 3+ goals
19%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
64%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
28%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
64%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.32 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Timok Zaječar attack 0.84 + RAD defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RAD scores more
48%
level
26%
Timok Zaječar scores more
26%

RAD at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: RAD 1–2 Timok Zaječar

Timok Zaječar beat RAD 2-1 in Prva Liga on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.