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Timok Zaječar vs Morava Vladičin Han — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
FT
5 – 1
Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
4/28/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 31Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Timok Zaječar69%
×Draw18%
Morava Vladičin Han13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timok Zaječar
2.37
Morava Vladičin Han
0.92

Timok Zaječar creates 158% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

creates per match

Timok Zaječar
1.95
Morava Vladičin Han
0.95

allows per match

Timok Zaječar
0.89
Morava Vladičin Han
2.79

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par
Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw
87%
Timok Zaječar or Morava Vladičin Han
82%
Draw or Morava Vladičin Han
31%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
46%
Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
91%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
68%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
42%
Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
60%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
23%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
84%
Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.37

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more
69%
level
18%
Morava Vladičin Han scores more
13%

Timok Zaječar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timok Zaječar vs Morava Vladičin Han

Timok Zaječar beat Morava Vladičin Han 5-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion pod Kraljevicom in Zaječar.