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Morava Vladičin Han vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Morava Vladičin Han
Morava Vladičin Han
FT
1 – 1
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
10/10/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 12Stadion FK Morava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Morava Vladičin Han45%
×Draw25%
Timok Zaječar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morava Vladičin Han
1.61
Timok Zaječar
1.27

Morava Vladičin Han creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

Morava Vladičin Han
1.68
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Morava Vladičin Han
1.47
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morava Vladičin Han ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Morava Vladičin Han or draw
70%
Morava Vladičin Han or Timok Zaječar
75%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
55%

Winning margin

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+
23%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals
80%
Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals
48%
Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals
22%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
72%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
36%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)
60%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morava Vladičin Han at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morava Vladičin Han attack 1.68 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Morava Vladičin Han scores more
45%
level
25%
Timok Zaječar scores more
30%

Morava Vladičin Han at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Morava Vladičin Han will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morava Vladičin Han vs Timok Zaječar

Morava Vladičin Han and Timok Zaječar drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Morava in Vladičin Han.