Timok Zaječar 2–0 Mladost Medoševac: Result & Stats

Timok Zaječar

FT

2 – 0

Mladost Medoševac

9/5/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Timok Zaječar62%

×Draw20%

Mladost Medoševac18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timok ZaječarExpected goals in this matchMladost Medoševac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.05

Timok Zaječar

2.16

Mladost Medoševac

1.05

Timok Zaječar creates 106% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 19 away

1.95

creates per match

1.21

0.89

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Timok Zaječar

1.95

Mladost Medoševac

1.21

allows per match

Timok Zaječar

0.89

Mladost Medoševac

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Mladost Medoševac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw

82%

Timok Zaječar or Mladost Medoševac

80%

Draw or Mladost Medoševac

38%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

39%

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

88%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

63%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

36%

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals

65%

Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals

28%

Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

78%

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.89 · 63 matches

Mladost Medoševac away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.95 + Mladost Medoševac defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.16

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.21 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more

62%

level

20%

Mladost Medoševac scores more

18%

Timok Zaječar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff