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Mladost Medoševac vs Timok Zaječar — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
0 – 2
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
3/28/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 24Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac45%
×Draw26%
Timok Zaječar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
1.44
Timok Zaječar
1.08

Mladost Medoševac creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Timok Zaječar
1.06

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Timok Zaječar
1.55

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
72%
Mladost Medoševac or Timok Zaječar
74%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
55%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
22%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
76%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
42%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
18%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
66%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
29%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
62%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Timok Zaječar attack 1.06 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
45%
level
26%
Timok Zaječar scores more
28%

Mladost Medoševac at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Medoševac vs Timok Zaječar

Timok Zaječar beat Mladost Medoševac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.