Timok Zaječar 3–0 Backa: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Timok Zaječar

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Backa

5/1/2022

Prva Liga · Relegation Round - 4Stadion pod Kraljevicom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Timok Zaječar49%

×Draw30%

Backa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Timok ZaječarExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.73

Timok Zaječar

1.25

Backa

0.73

Timok Zaječar creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.22

creates per match

0.74

0.72

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Timok Zaječar

1.22

Backa

0.74

allows per match

Timok Zaječar

0.72

Backa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timok Zaječar ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Timok Zaječar or draw

78%

Timok Zaječar or Backa

70%

Draw or Backa

51%

Winning margin

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

22%

Backa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

71%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

36%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

13%

Backa 1+ goals

52%

Backa 2+ goals

17%

Backa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

69%

Backa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timok Zaječar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timok Zaječar attack 1.22 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Backa attack 0.74 + Timok Zaječar defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Timok Zaječar scores more

49%

level

30%

Backa scores more

22%

Timok Zaječar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Timok Zaječar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff