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Backa vs Timok Zaječar — Prva Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Timok Zaječar
Timok Zaječar
4/10/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 30Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Backa54%
×Draw26%
Timok Zaječar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.50
Timok Zaječar
0.80

Backa creates 88% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

creates per match

Backa
1.36
Timok Zaječar
0.84

allows per match

Backa
0.76
Timok Zaječar
1.63

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Timok Zaječar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Backa or draw
80%
Backa or Timok Zaječar
74%
Draw or Timok Zaječar
46%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
28%
Timok Zaječar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
78%
Backa 2+ goals
44%
Backa 3+ goals
19%
Timok Zaječar 1+ goals
55%
Timok Zaječar 2+ goals
19%
Timok Zaječar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
73%
Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 1.36 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Timok Zaječar attack 0.84 + Backa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Backa scores more
54%
level
26%
Timok Zaječar scores more
20%

Backa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Backa 0–1 Timok Zaječar

Timok Zaječar beat Backa 1-0 in Prva Liga on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.