Timočanin 2–0 Sloga Leskovac: Result & Stats

Timočanin

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sloga Leskovac

3/27/2022

Srpska Liga - East · East - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Timočanin66%

×Draw18%

Sloga Leskovac15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TimočaninExpected goals in this matchSloga Leskovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.06

Timočanin

2.39

Sloga Leskovac

1.06

Timočanin creates 125% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 29 away

2.37

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Timočanin

2.37

Sloga Leskovac

0.93

allows per match

Timočanin

1.20

Sloga Leskovac

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par

Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Sloga Leskovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw

85%

Timočanin or Sloga Leskovac

82%

Draw or Sloga Leskovac

34%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+

44%

Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals

91%

Timočanin 2+ goals

69%

Timočanin 3+ goals

42%

Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals

65%

Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals

29%

Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)

81%

Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Sloga Leskovac away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.39

Sloga Leskovac attack 0.93 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Timočanin scores more

66%

level

18%

Sloga Leskovac scores more

15%

Timočanin at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff