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Sloga Leskovac vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Sloga Leskovac
Sloga Leskovac
FT
0 – 4
Timočanin
Timočanin
9/4/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 4Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sloga Leskovac40%
×Draw23%
Timočanin37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Leskovac
1.68
Timočanin
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 73 away

creates per match

Sloga Leskovac
1.69
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Sloga Leskovac
2.17
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Sloga Leskovac+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Leskovac ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sloga Leskovac or draw
63%
Sloga Leskovac or Timočanin
77%
Draw or Timočanin
60%

Winning margin

Sloga Leskovac wins by 2+
20%
Timočanin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sloga Leskovac 1+ goals
81%
Sloga Leskovac 2+ goals
50%
Sloga Leskovac 3+ goals
24%
Timočanin 1+ goals
80%
Timočanin 2+ goals
48%
Timočanin 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sloga Leskovac (draw refunded)
52%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Leskovac at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Leskovac attack 1.69 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Sloga Leskovac defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sloga Leskovac scores more
40%
level
23%
Timočanin scores more
37%

Sloga Leskovac at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sloga Leskovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Sloga Leskovac 0–4 Timočanin

Timočanin beat Sloga Leskovac 4-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište FK Sloga Leskovac in Leskovac.