Timočanin 1–1 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Timočanin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dunav Prahovo

5/21/2023

Srpska Liga - East · East - 27Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Timočanin60%

×Draw21%

Dunav Prahovo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TimočaninExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.13

Timočanin

2.13

Dunav Prahovo

1.13

Timočanin creates 88% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 79 away

2.37

creates per match

1.05

1.20

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Timočanin

2.37

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Timočanin

1.20

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw

80%

Timočanin or Dunav Prahovo

79%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

40%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+

37%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals

88%

Timočanin 2+ goals

63%

Timočanin 3+ goals

35%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

68%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

31%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)

75%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.13

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Timočanin scores more

60%

level

21%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

20%

Timočanin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff