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Dunav Prahovo vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
0 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
9/5/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dunav Prahovo52%
×Draw24%
Timočanin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
1.68
Timočanin
1.07

Dunav Prahovo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
76%
Dunav Prahovo or Timočanin
76%
Draw or Timočanin
48%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
28%
Timočanin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
81%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
50%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
24%
Timočanin 1+ goals
66%
Timočanin 2+ goals
29%
Timočanin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
68%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
52%
level
24%
Timočanin scores more
24%

Dunav Prahovo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Prahovo 0–1 Timočanin

Timočanin beat Dunav Prahovo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.