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Timočanin vs Brzi Brod — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Timočanin
Timočanin
FT
3 – 0
Brzi Brod
Brzi Brod
3/12/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Timočanin59%
×Draw20%
Brzi Brod20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Timočanin
2.15
Brzi Brod
1.17

Timočanin creates 84% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 60 away

creates per match

Timočanin
2.37
Brzi Brod
1.13

allows per match

Timočanin
1.20
Brzi Brod
1.93

finishing

Timočanin+0.00on par
Brzi Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Timočanin ↓

Brzi Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Timočanin or draw
80%
Timočanin or Brzi Brod
80%
Draw or Brzi Brod
41%

Winning margin

Timočanin wins by 2+
37%
Brzi Brod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Timočanin 1+ goals
88%
Timočanin 2+ goals
63%
Timočanin 3+ goals
36%
Brzi Brod 1+ goals
69%
Brzi Brod 2+ goals
33%
Brzi Brod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Timočanin (draw refunded)
75%
Brzi Brod (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Timočanin at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.20 · 71 matches

Brzi Brod away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Timočanin attack 2.37 + Brzi Brod defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Brzi Brod attack 1.13 + Timočanin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Timočanin scores more
59%
level
20%
Brzi Brod scores more
20%

Timočanin at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Timočanin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Timočanin vs Brzi Brod

Timočanin beat Brzi Brod 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Knjaževac.