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Brzi Brod vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Brzi Brod
Brzi Brod
FT
1 – 0
Timočanin
Timočanin
8/22/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion OFK Brzi Brod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Brzi Brod50%
×Draw24%
Timočanin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brzi Brod
1.65
Timočanin
1.10

Brzi Brod creates 50% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 73 away

creates per match

Brzi Brod
1.64
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Brzi Brod
1.16
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Brzi Brod+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brzi Brod ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brzi Brod or draw
75%
Brzi Brod or Timočanin
76%
Draw or Timočanin
50%

Winning margin

Brzi Brod wins by 2+
27%
Timočanin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brzi Brod 1+ goals
81%
Brzi Brod 2+ goals
49%
Brzi Brod 3+ goals
23%
Timočanin 1+ goals
67%
Timočanin 2+ goals
30%
Timočanin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brzi Brod (draw refunded)
66%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brzi Brod at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brzi Brod attack 1.64 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Brzi Brod defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brzi Brod scores more
50%
level
24%
Timočanin scores more
25%

Brzi Brod at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brzi Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Brzi Brod 1–0 Timočanin

Brzi Brod beat Timočanin 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OFK Brzi Brod in Brzi Brod.