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Tillmitsch vs Frauental — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Tillmitsch
Tillmitsch
FT
2 – 1
Frauental
Frauental
9/22/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 8Nunner Arena Tillmitsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Tillmitsch54%
×Draw22%
Frauental23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tillmitsch
1.94
Frauental
1.20

Tillmitsch creates 62% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Tillmitsch
2.22
Frauental
1.40

allows per match

Tillmitsch
1.00
Frauental
1.65

finishing

Tillmitsch+0.00on par
Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tillmitsch ↓

Frauental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tillmitsch or draw
77%
Tillmitsch or Frauental
78%
Draw or Frauental
46%

Winning margin

Tillmitsch wins by 2+
32%
Frauental wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tillmitsch 1+ goals
86%
Tillmitsch 2+ goals
58%
Tillmitsch 3+ goals
30%
Frauental 1+ goals
70%
Frauental 2+ goals
34%
Frauental 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tillmitsch (draw refunded)
70%
Frauental (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tillmitsch at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tillmitsch attack 2.22 + Frauental defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.94

Frauental attack 1.40 + Tillmitsch defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tillmitsch scores more
54%
level
22%
Frauental scores more
23%

Tillmitsch at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Tillmitsch 2–1 Frauental

Tillmitsch beat Frauental 2-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 22, 2023.

The match was played at Nunner Arena Tillmitsch in Tillmitsch.