Frauental 1–4 Tillmitsch: Result & Stats

Frauental

FT

1 – 4

Tillmitsch

4/26/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 23Sportplatz Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Frauental26%

×Draw23%

Tillmitsch51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrauentalExpected goals in this matchTillmitsch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.89

Frauental

1.30

Tillmitsch

1.89

Tillmitsch creates 45% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

1.22

creates per match

1.82

1.96

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Frauental

1.22

Tillmitsch

1.82

allows per match

Frauental

1.96

Tillmitsch

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par

Tillmitsch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Tillmitsch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Frauental or draw

49%

Frauental or Tillmitsch

77%

Draw or Tillmitsch

74%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+

11%

Tillmitsch wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals

73%

Frauental 2+ goals

37%

Frauental 3+ goals

14%

Tillmitsch 1+ goals

85%

Tillmitsch 2+ goals

56%

Tillmitsch 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)

34%

Tillmitsch (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Tillmitsch away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Tillmitsch defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tillmitsch attack 1.82 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frauental scores more

26%

level

23%

Tillmitsch scores more

51%

Tillmitsch at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff