Tiller 1–3 Strindheim: Result & Stats

Tiller

FT

1 – 3

Strindheim

10/2/2021

3. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 9TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tiller29%

×Draw20%

Strindheim50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TillerExpected goals in this matchStrindheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.29

Tiller

1.73

Strindheim

2.29

Strindheim creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.91

creates per match

2.88

1.70

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Tiller

1.91

Strindheim

2.88

allows per match

Tiller

1.70

Strindheim

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par

Strindheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Strindheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Tiller or draw

50%

Tiller or Strindheim

80%

Draw or Strindheim

71%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+

14%

Strindheim wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals

82%

Tiller 2+ goals

52%

Tiller 3+ goals

25%

Strindheim 1+ goals

90%

Strindheim 2+ goals

66%

Strindheim 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)

37%

Strindheim (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Strindheim away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 1.91 + Strindheim defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Strindheim attack 2.88 + Tiller defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tiller scores more

29%

level

20%

Strindheim scores more

50%

Strindheim at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff