Strindheim 4–1 Tiller: Result & Stats

Strindheim

FT

4 – 1

Tiller

4/10/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1Leangen Bolig Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Strindheim60%

×Draw18%

Tiller22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StrindheimExpected goals in this matchTiller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.61

Strindheim

2.67

Tiller

1.61

Strindheim creates 66% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

3.13

creates per match

2.00

1.22

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Strindheim

3.13

Tiller

2.00

allows per match

Strindheim

1.22

Tiller

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Strindheim+0.00on par

Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Strindheim ↓

Tiller →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Strindheim or draw

78%

Strindheim or Tiller

82%

Draw or Tiller

40%

Winning margin

Strindheim wins by 2+

39%

Tiller wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Strindheim 1+ goals

93%

Strindheim 2+ goals

74%

Strindheim 3+ goals

49%

Tiller 1+ goals

80%

Tiller 2+ goals

48%

Tiller 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Strindheim (draw refunded)

73%

Tiller (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Strindheim at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Strindheim attack 3.13 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.67

Tiller attack 2.00 + Strindheim defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Strindheim scores more

60%

level

18%

Tiller scores more

22%

Strindheim at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Strindheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff