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Tiller vs Ranheim II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Tiller
Tiller
CANC
14:00
Ranheim II
Ranheim II
8/15/20203. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 2TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tiller63%
×Draw17%
Ranheim II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiller
2.96
Ranheim II
1.69

Tiller creates 75% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tiller
1.91
Ranheim II
1.67

allows per match

Tiller
1.70
Ranheim II
4.00

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par
Ranheim II+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Ranheim II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Tiller or draw
79%
Tiller or Ranheim II
83%
Draw or Ranheim II
37%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+
43%
Ranheim II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals
95%
Tiller 2+ goals
79%
Tiller 3+ goals
55%
Ranheim II 1+ goals
82%
Ranheim II 2+ goals
50%
Ranheim II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)
75%
Ranheim II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Ranheim II away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 1.91 + Ranheim II defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

Ranheim II attack 1.67 + Tiller defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tiller scores more
63%
level
17%
Ranheim II scores more
21%

Tiller at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tiller will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tiller host Ranheim II

August 15, 2020: Tiller take on Ranheim II in 3. Division - Girone 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tiller host Ranheim II at TOBB Arena Sør.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.