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Ranheim II vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Ranheim II
Ranheim II
FT
6 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Tiller
Tiller
8/31/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 18EXTRA Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ranheim II63%
×Draw16%
Tiller20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ranheim II
3.16
Tiller
1.81

Ranheim II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ranheim II
2.70
Tiller
1.23

allows per match

Ranheim II
2.40
Tiller
3.62

finishing

Ranheim II+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ranheim II ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Ranheim II or draw
80%
Ranheim II or Tiller
84%
Draw or Tiller
37%

Winning margin

Ranheim II wins by 2+
44%
Tiller wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ranheim II 1+ goals
96%
Ranheim II 2+ goals
82%
Ranheim II 3+ goals
59%
Tiller 1+ goals
84%
Tiller 2+ goals
54%
Tiller 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ranheim II (draw refunded)
76%
Tiller (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ranheim II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.40 · 20 matches

Tiller away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ranheim II attack 2.70 + Tiller defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 3.16

Tiller attack 1.23 + Ranheim II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ranheim II scores more
63%
level
16%
Tiller scores more
20%

Ranheim II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ranheim II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Ranheim II 6–3 Tiller

Ranheim II beat Tiller 6-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at EXTRA Arena in Ranheim.