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Tiller vs Rana — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Tiller
Tiller
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Rana
Rana
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 25TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tiller35%
×Draw20%
Rana45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiller
1.93
Rana
2.20

Rana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tiller
2.31
Rana
2.62

allows per match

Tiller
1.77
Rana
1.54

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par
Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Rana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Tiller or draw
55%
Tiller or Rana
80%
Draw or Rana
65%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+
18%
Rana wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals
85%
Tiller 2+ goals
57%
Tiller 3+ goals
30%
Rana 1+ goals
89%
Rana 2+ goals
64%
Rana 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)
44%
Rana (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Rana away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 2.31 + Rana defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rana attack 2.62 + Tiller defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tiller scores more
35%
level
20%
Rana scores more
45%

Rana at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiller vs Rana

Rana beat Tiller 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at TOBB Arena Sør in Trondheim.