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Tiller vs Rana — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Tiller
Tiller
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rana
Rana
10/1/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 22TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tiller39%
×Draw21%
Rana40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiller
2.00
Rana
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tiller
1.91
Rana
2.38

allows per match

Tiller
1.70
Rana
2.08

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par
Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Rana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tiller or draw
60%
Tiller or Rana
79%
Draw or Rana
61%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+
21%
Rana wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals
86%
Tiller 2+ goals
59%
Tiller 3+ goals
32%
Rana 1+ goals
87%
Rana 2+ goals
60%
Rana 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)
49%
Rana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Rana away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 1.91 + Rana defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rana attack 2.38 + Tiller defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tiller scores more
39%
level
21%
Rana scores more
40%

Rana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiller vs Rana

Tiller beat Rana 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at TOBB Arena Sør in Trondheim.