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Tiller vs Kvik Trondheim — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Tiller
Tiller
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kvik Trondheim
Kvik Trondheim
4/21/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 3TOBB Arena Sør

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tiller27%
×Draw20%
Kvik Trondheim53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tiller
1.67
Kvik Trondheim
2.39

Kvik Trondheim creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tiller
1.38
Kvik Trondheim
1.63

allows per match

Tiller
3.15
Kvik Trondheim
1.95

finishing

Tiller+0.00on par
Kvik Trondheim+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tiller ↓

Kvik Trondheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Tiller or draw
47%
Tiller or Kvik Trondheim
80%
Draw or Kvik Trondheim
73%

Winning margin

Tiller wins by 2+
13%
Kvik Trondheim wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Tiller 1+ goals
81%
Tiller 2+ goals
50%
Tiller 3+ goals
23%
Kvik Trondheim 1+ goals
91%
Kvik Trondheim 2+ goals
69%
Kvik Trondheim 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Tiller (draw refunded)
33%
Kvik Trondheim (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tiller at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Kvik Trondheim away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tiller attack 1.38 + Kvik Trondheim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kvik Trondheim attack 1.63 + Tiller defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tiller scores more
27%
level
20%
Kvik Trondheim scores more
53%

Kvik Trondheim at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kvik Trondheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tiller vs Kvik Trondheim

Kvik Trondheim beat Tiller 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at TOBB Arena Sør in Trondheim.