Kvik Trondheim 4–0 Tiller: Result & Stats

Kvik Trondheim

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tiller

10/11/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 24Rosenborg Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kvik Trondheim60%

×Draw18%

Tiller22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik TrondheimExpected goals in this matchTiller

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.56

Kvik Trondheim

2.63

Tiller

1.56

Kvik Trondheim creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.65

creates per match

1.23

1.90

allows per match

3.62

creates per match

Kvik Trondheim

1.65

Tiller

1.23

allows per match

Kvik Trondheim

1.90

Tiller

3.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Trondheim+0.00on par

Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Trondheim ↓

Tiller →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Kvik Trondheim or draw

78%

Kvik Trondheim or Tiller

82%

Draw or Tiller

40%

Winning margin

Kvik Trondheim wins by 2+

39%

Tiller wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kvik Trondheim 1+ goals

93%

Kvik Trondheim 2+ goals

73%

Kvik Trondheim 3+ goals

48%

Tiller 1+ goals

79%

Tiller 2+ goals

46%

Tiller 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kvik Trondheim (draw refunded)

73%

Tiller (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Trondheim at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Tiller away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Trondheim attack 1.65 + Tiller defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.63

Tiller attack 1.23 + Kvik Trondheim defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kvik Trondheim scores more

60%

level

18%

Tiller scores more

22%

Kvik Trondheim at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kvik Trondheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff