TIL 2020 W 4–2 Grand Bodø W: Result & Stats

TIL 2020 W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Grand Bodø W

3/26/2023

1. Division Women · Round 1Romssa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

TIL 2020 W61%

×Draw20%

Grand Bodø W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TIL 2020 WExpected goals in this matchGrand Bodø W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.05

TIL 2020 W

2.11

Grand Bodø W

1.05

TIL 2020 W creates 101% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 25 away

1.90

creates per match

1.00

1.10

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

TIL 2020 W

1.90

Grand Bodø W

1.00

allows per match

TIL 2020 W

1.10

Grand Bodø W

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Grand Bodø W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 W ↓

Grand Bodø W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

TIL 2020 W or draw

82%

TIL 2020 W or Grand Bodø W

80%

Draw or Grand Bodø W

39%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 W wins by 2+

38%

Grand Bodø W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

TIL 2020 W 1+ goals

88%

TIL 2020 W 2+ goals

62%

TIL 2020 W 3+ goals

35%

Grand Bodø W 1+ goals

65%

Grand Bodø W 2+ goals

28%

Grand Bodø W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)

77%

Grand Bodø W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 W at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Grand Bodø W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 W attack 1.90 + Grand Bodø W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.11

Grand Bodø W attack 1.00 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

TIL 2020 W scores more

61%

level

20%

Grand Bodø W scores more

18%

TIL 2020 W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "TIL 2020 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff