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TIL 2020 vs Grand Bodø — 1. Division Women 2022

TIL 2020
TIL 2020
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Grand Bodø
Grand Bodø
8/21/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 17Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

TIL 202061%
×Draw20%
Grand Bodø18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TIL 2020
2.11
Grand Bodø
1.05

TIL 2020 creates 101% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 25 away

creates per match

TIL 2020
1.90
Grand Bodø
1.00

allows per match

TIL 2020
1.10
Grand Bodø
2.32

finishing

TIL 2020+0.00on par
Grand Bodø+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 ↓

Grand Bodø →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

TIL 2020 or draw
82%
TIL 2020 or Grand Bodø
80%
Draw or Grand Bodø
39%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 wins by 2+
38%
Grand Bodø wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TIL 2020 1+ goals
88%
TIL 2020 2+ goals
62%
TIL 2020 3+ goals
35%
Grand Bodø 1+ goals
65%
Grand Bodø 2+ goals
28%
Grand Bodø 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 (draw refunded)
77%
Grand Bodø (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Grand Bodø away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 attack 1.90 + Grand Bodø defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.11

Grand Bodø attack 1.00 + TIL 2020 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

TIL 2020 scores more
61%
level
20%
Grand Bodø scores more
18%

TIL 2020 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "TIL 2020 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TIL 2020 vs Grand Bodø

TIL 2020 beat Grand Bodø 5-0 in 1. Division Women on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.