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TIL 2020 vs Medkila — 1. Division Women 2022

TIL 2020
TIL 2020
FT
6 – 0
Medkila
Medkila
3/19/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 1Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

TIL 202076%
×Draw15%
Medkila9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TIL 2020
2.56
Medkila
0.74

TIL 2020 creates 246% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 13 away

creates per match

TIL 2020
1.90
Medkila
0.38

allows per match

TIL 2020
1.10
Medkila
3.23

finishing

TIL 2020+0.00on par
Medkila+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TIL 2020 ↓

Medkila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

TIL 2020 or draw
91%
TIL 2020 or Medkila
85%
Draw or Medkila
24%

Winning margin

TIL 2020 wins by 2+
54%
Medkila wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TIL 2020 1+ goals
92%
TIL 2020 2+ goals
72%
TIL 2020 3+ goals
46%
Medkila 1+ goals
52%
Medkila 2+ goals
17%
Medkila 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TIL 2020 (draw refunded)
90%
Medkila (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TIL 2020 at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Medkila away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TIL 2020 attack 1.90 + Medkila defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.56

Medkila attack 0.38 + TIL 2020 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

TIL 2020 scores more
76%
level
15%
Medkila scores more
9%

TIL 2020 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "TIL 2020 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: TIL 2020 6–0 Medkila

TIL 2020 beat Medkila 6-0 in 1. Division Women on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Alfheim Stadion in Tromsø.