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Medkila vs TIL 2020 — 1. Division Women 2022

Medkila
Medkila
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
TIL 2020
TIL 2020
8/28/20221. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 18Harstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Medkila31%
×Draw22%
TIL 202047%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medkila
1.55
TIL 2020
1.93

TIL 2020 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 49 away

creates per match

Medkila
1.67
TIL 2020
1.61

allows per match

Medkila
2.25
TIL 2020
1.43

finishing

Medkila+0.00on par
TIL 2020+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medkila ↓

TIL 2020 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Medkila or draw
53%
Medkila or TIL 2020
78%
Draw or TIL 2020
69%

Winning margin

Medkila wins by 2+
15%
TIL 2020 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Medkila 1+ goals
79%
Medkila 2+ goals
46%
Medkila 3+ goals
20%
TIL 2020 1+ goals
85%
TIL 2020 2+ goals
57%
TIL 2020 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Medkila (draw refunded)
40%
TIL 2020 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medkila at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

TIL 2020 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medkila attack 1.67 + TIL 2020 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

TIL 2020 attack 1.61 + Medkila defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Medkila scores more
31%
level
22%
TIL 2020 scores more
47%

TIL 2020 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "TIL 2020 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medkila vs TIL 2020

TIL 2020 beat Medkila 6-0 in 1. Division Women on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Harstad Stadion in Harstad.